Astronomers Are Sounding the Alarm Over Dangerous Space Weather. Are We Prepared?

We have a suite of incredibly advanced, complex instruments to study the weather on Earth. Space weather isn’t any less complicated—quite the opposite, in fact—and so one would think that the measures we take to watch for such events should match that complexity.

Astronomers, however, aren’t so sure we’re doing nearly enough. In a paper published October 6 in The Astrophysical Journal, researchers created detailed simulations showing huge shifts in the Sun’s plasma and magnetic fields caused by smaller “flux ropes” that typically evade the detection range of our existing probes. They argued that this gap in our space weather detection systems leaves us more vulnerable to potentially dangerous events like coronal mass ejections, which are powerful bursts of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona that can damage satellites, GPS systems, and even knock out the electricity grid.

What Earth needs, the researchers argued, is a new “constellation of spacecraft” wholly dedicated to monitoring solar activity.

“Imagine if you could only monitor a hurricane remotely with the measurements from one wind gauge,” Chip Manchester, the study’s lead author and an astrophysicist at the University of Michigan, said in a statement. “You’d see a change in the measurements, but you wouldn’t see the storm’s entire structure. That’s the current situation with single-spacecraft systems. We need viewpoints from multiple space weather stations.”

A small filament with big consequences

For the study, the researchers modeled the influence of “flux ropes,” which are relatively smaller, tornado-like spirals of plasma and magnetic fields on the Sun. These ropes typically aren’t strong enough to trigger CMEs, but under specific conditions, they can fling aside enough energy to trigger devastating explosions, the researchers found.

“Our simulation shows that the magnetic field in these vortices can be strong enough to trigger a geomagnetic storm and cause some real trouble,” Manchester said.

A better way to track space weather

Solar winds only trigger geomagnetic storms when the Sun’s magnetic field is oriented to the south. Our current space weather detection systems are geared toward this, with monitoring spacecraft placed strategically to measure the strength and direction of the solar magnetic field.

What the new simulations suggest, however, is that solar eruptions may emerge from north-facing magnetic fields that could “toss vortices with southward-pointing magnetic fields toward Earth,” the researchers wrote.

Manchester and his colleagues propose that we build a constellation of satellites that they dub the Space Weather Investigation Frontier, or SWIFT, which would be capable of capturing signals from multiple directions. Consisting of four probes arranged in a pyramid with each being around 200,000 miles away from the other, the researchers believe the configuration would boost space weather warnings by 40%.

Earth’s last major geomagnetic storm hit in May 2024. Then, observers detected disruptions in electric grids, satellites, agricultural networks, and air travel, according to NASA. The storm also tampered with data signals from spacecraft, including NASA’s Mars Odyssey orbiter and Curiosity rover. With the Sun still in a period of intense solar activity—the star is believed to be in its solar maximum, or the moment in its activity cycle when it is at its most stormy—these astronomers’ warnings could yet prove all too prescient.